Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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10 Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 80 knots / MPH at 2023-05-17T00:00:00.000Z

10 Land Hazards

10 Tracker

10 Satellite Loop

10 Alternate Tracking Map

10 Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for 10 can be found here:

10 spaghetti models page »

10 Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 Public Advisory

ZCZC 830
WTIO30 FMEE 140053 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/10/20222023
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2023/05/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.5 S / 83.4 E
(FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/14 12 UTC: 5.2 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0
24H: 2023/05/15 00 UTC: 5.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0
36H: 2023/05/15 12 UTC: 6.1 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 45
48H: 2023/05/16 00 UTC: 6.9 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45
60H: 2023/05/16 12 UTC: 7.8 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
72H: 2023/05/17 00 UTC: 8.7 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/05/18 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
120H: 2023/05/19 00 UTC: 10.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5-
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE LATTER IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CDO AS A RESULT OF THE STILL PRESENT EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 1946Z AMSR2 AND 2153Z SSMIS) SHOW
SHARPER SIGNS OF CURVATURE. CONSEQUENTLY SYSTEM 10 HAS BEEN
RECLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, IN THE COMING DAYS THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGES SHOULD CAUSE A SLOWING DOWN OF ITS
MOVEMENT, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY ON THE LATE TRACK.
THE RSMC FORECAST REFLECTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN AND
AMERICAN MODELS, BUT CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN SCENARIO, WHICH SEEMS TO
BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL STATE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO WITH NO DIRECT THREAT TO THE
OTHER INHABITED ISLANDS OF THE BASIN.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
LIMITED BY THE MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, THE LOW LATITUDE
(NORTH OF 5S) AS WELL AS A WEAKER SURFACE FEEDING ON THE EQUATORIAL
SIDE ( DUE TO CYCLONE MOCHA IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE).
PROGRESSIVELY TODAY AND MOSTLY FROM MONDAY, WITH THE DECREASE OF THIS
SHEAR, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE GOOD
ALOFT DIVERGENCE, A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE RSMC
FORECAST THUS ANTICIPATES AN INITIALLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE
RAPID EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MID-WEEK. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST MODELS,
NOTABLY IFS AND GFS.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

10 storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2023-05-14T00:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-4.5, 83.4
2023-05-14T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-5.2, 81.3	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2023-05-15T00:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-5.7, 79.3	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2023-05-15T12:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-6.1, 77.5	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2023-05-16T00:00:00.000Z	60 knots	-6.9, 76.0	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2023-05-16T12:00:00.000Z	70 knots	-7.8, 74.7	translation missing: en.TROPICAL
2023-05-17T00:00:00.000Z	80 knots	-8.7, 73.8	translation missing: en.TROPICAL
2023-05-18T00:00:00.000Z	80 knots	-10.2, 72.4	translation missing: en.TROPICAL
2023-05-19T00:00:00.000Z	70 knots	-10.8, 71.0	translation missing: en.TROPICAL

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