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03U Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / MPH at 2020-01-13T12:00:00.000Z

03U Land Hazards

03U Tracker

03U Satellite Loop

03U Alternate Tracking Map

03U Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for 03U can be found here:

03U spaghetti models page »

03U Watches and Warnings

Tropical Low 03U Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Low 03U Public Advisory

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1321 UTC 11/01/2020
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.1S
Longitude: 126.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds: N/A
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code:N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  11/1800: 13.3S 125.4E:     050 [095]:  030  [060]:  998
+12:  12/0000: 13.7S 124.3E:     065 [120]:  040  [070]:  996
+18:  12/0600: 14.2S 123.0E:     075 [145]:  045  [085]:  992
+24:  12/1200: 14.9S 121.7E:     090 [165]:  050  [095]:  989
+36:  13/0000: 16.0S 118.6E:     110 [200]:  060  [105]:  984
+48:  13/1200: 17.1S 115.5E:     130 [235]:  065  [120]:  980
+60:  14/0000: 18.1S 112.7E:     150 [275]:  065  [120]:  978
+72:  14/1200: 19.1S 110.6E:     165 [310]:  055  [100]:  983
+96:  15/1200: 20.9S 107.4E:     210 [390]:  030  [060]:  998
+120: 16/1200: 22.2S 105.3E:     300 [555]:  030  [055]:  997
REMARKS:
03U was located using a combination of recent animated IR and radar imagery.
This afternoon, persistent convection had established to the north of the system
centre along with some more vigorous blow ups on the down shear, southwest side
the the LLC. VIS imagery late this afternoon indicated the curvature in
convective banding has improved and the cloud system centre is better defined.
This was confirmed with the receipt of SSMIS microwave imagery at 0820UTC
showing good banding to the north and western peripheries. A Dvorak initial
classification of 1.5 was made at 0200 UTC.  The average DT over the last three
hours is 2.5. This is a non-standard application of Dvorak as 03U is a well
formed system that  off land and we expect it to develop into a tropical cyclone
in the next 12-24 hours. There is no objective intensity guidance available at
present and intensity is set to 30 knots which is confirmed with similar
strength winds are being observed at Troughton Island to the south of the system
centre.

Currently 03U is located over high SSTs [>30C] but under moderate to strong
southeasterly to easterly shear. Most models indicate the system should
intensify over the next 3 days. Models depict the system remaining to the north
of a strong upper ridge through to the middle of next week. The dominant ridge
results in a steady motion to the west southwest at 10-15 knots over several
days. The consistency of the winds with height may moderate the vertical shear
but the system is unlikely to experience low shear in this synoptic pattern.
Most models indicate the system remains under moderate east to northeast shear,
with good divergence on the western side but limited outflow likely on the
eastern side.

The EC model indicates that during Sunday and Monday dry air to the south of the
system wraps entirely around 03U and from Monday the system is likely to be
ingesting dry air. Combined with cooler SSTs this should establish a weakening
trend. Other models delay this weakening trend until Tuesday or Wednesday with
the GFS an outlier maintaining in intense system until Friday. This scenario
seems less likely given the high shear environment and cooler SSTs on that
track, and may partly reflect the moister environment in the GFS model.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1930 UTC by Perth TCWC.

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Low 03U Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

03U storm path from BOM - PERTH

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2020-01-11T13:21:00.000Z	30 knots	-13.1, 126.3
2020-01-11T18:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-13.3, 125.4
2020-01-12T00:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-13.7, 124.3
2020-01-12T06:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-14.2, 123.0
2020-01-12T12:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-14.9, 121.7
2020-01-13T00:00:00.000Z	60 knots	-16.0, 118.6
2020-01-13T12:00:00.000Z	65 knots	-17.1, 115.5
2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z	65 knots	-18.1, 112.7
2020-01-14T12:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-19.1, 110.6
2020-01-15T12:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-20.9, 107.4
2020-01-16T12:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-22.2, 105.3

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