Cyclocane
(cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker)
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
MARCIA Current Status
Current Wind Speed 75 knots / 86 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 75 knots / 86 MPH at
MARCIA Land Hazards
MARCIA Tracker
MARCIA Satellite Loop
MARCIA Alternate Tracking Map
Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms.
MARCIA Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for MARCIA can be found here:
MARCIA spaghetti models page »
MARCIA Watches and Warnings
The Watches and Warnings Map is only availble on NHC tracked storms.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA Tropical Cyclone Update
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA Public Advisory
WTPS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 150.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 150.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.4S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.9S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 28.1S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 28.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
13P MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 19/2200Z AND HAS STARTED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS DRAGGED ACROSS LAND. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE HAS DISSOLVED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS STARTED TO OPEN WHILE THE REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO WARM AND BREAK APART. THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE UNRAVELING NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AND DUE TO THE
DECREASING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IS
BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EAST AND PRESS ON THE SYSTEM. TC MARCIA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE
TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CORAL SEA NEAR BRISBANE AS A WEAK (<30 KNOTS) SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL (24 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN Public Advisory not available for this storm.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
MARCIA storm path from JTWC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 knots | -23.8, 150.6 | ||
| 55 knots | -25.4, 151.4 | dissipating | |
| 35 knots | -26.9, 152.7 | dissipating | |
| 30 knots | -28.1, 154.2 | ||
| 30 knots | -28.6, 155.5 |
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