Cyclocane

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 016    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 112.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 112.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 17.1S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 111.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED 
FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND MOVING OFF TO THE 
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR WITH POOR 
CONFIDENCE, WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SUPPORT THE 
ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 
T1.5, REFLECTING CIMSS SATCON AND CIRA MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS 
ESTIMATES. A 031424Z ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER, BUT INDICATED 25 
KNOTS NEARBY. TC 01S IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY 
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DUE TO DECLINING SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DAHLIA IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, 
LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE 
REMNANT CIRC COULD EVENTUALLY TRACK BACK INTO MORE FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, REGENERATION IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAHLIA Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

DAHLIA storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2017-12-03T18:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-15.9, 112.0	dissipating
2017-12-04T06:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-17.1, 111.5	dissipated

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