(cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker)
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Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 46 MPH at
Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms.
Spaghetti models for 11F can be found here:
The Watches and Warnings Map is only availble on NHC tracked storms.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 250118 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 155.8W AT 250000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS GOES EIR AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN PAST 24 HOURS.SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHSOUTH-EAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.50 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.5. MET=2.0, AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YEILDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 19.7S 155.2W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 20.6S 153.8W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 21.5S 152.1W MOV ESE AT 09KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 22.3S 150.6W MOV ESE AT 08KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 250800 UTC.
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
30 knots | -18.6, -155.8 | ||
30 knots | -19.7, -155.2 | ||
35 knots | -20.6, -153.8 | ||
35 knots | -21.5, -152.1 | ||
40 knots | -22.3, -150.6 |
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