000
WTPZ34 KNHC 100232
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
...DANIEL STILL A HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 132.2W
ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.2 WEST. DANIEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE DANIEL Forecast Discussion
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100232
TCDEP4
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE SMALL CDO REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0/65 KT
...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER
SSTS OF 24-25C FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3
AND DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE DUE WESTWARD...AND IS NOW A
LITTLE FASTER AT 15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 15.4N 132.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 15.4N 134.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.5N 137.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN