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Other future tropical cyclones:
Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is medium.
No active storms
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 146.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 146.3E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161115Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT. A
161208Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 25-30KT WINDS WITHIN THE WESTERN
PORTION THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEPICT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE UNDER-PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT
THUS FAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. site by Hayley Croft
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