Cyclocane

WTPS33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 167.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 167.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 23.0S 166.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 167.0E.
03FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED 
SOUTHWARD  PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MSI 
LOOP ALSO SHOWS VIGOROUS COLD AIR ADVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED 
LLC IN THE MSI LOOP, AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 
022226Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED 
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS, THE 030040Z 
ADT ESTIMATE OF 41KTS, THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, AND PGTW/KNES 
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS. CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 
LUCAS IS QUICKLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL AND WILL COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL 
TRANSITION BY TAU 12. AS SUCH, THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE JTWC 
WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE 
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FORSIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 030000Z IS 14 FEET.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LUCAS Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

LUCAS storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2021-02-03T00:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-21.9, 167.1
2021-02-03T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-23.0, 166.8

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