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Other future tropical cyclones:
Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is low.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17NOV20 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 71.6E, APPROXIMATELY 596 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.0S 74.6E, APPROXIMATELY 305NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 93S IS CURRENTLY IN UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25KTS. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD FOR WHICH 93S HAS ROOM TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF LOW VWS (<15KTS), REMAINS ABOVE THE
26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM FOR SSTS, AND HAS WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. site by Hayley Croft
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