Cyclocane

WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 035    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 28.2S 85.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 85.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 29.9S 89.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 32.0S 91.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1474 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO WARM AND 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL. A 141218Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
IMAGE SHOWS REMNANT CONVECTIVE BANDS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND 
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON 
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS PLACED BELOW MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) DUE TO THE DIMINISHED CONVECTION. TC 13S 
IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, HIGH (25-40 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND TROUGHING 
ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 
WHILE CONTINUALLY WEAKENING. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, VWS IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND 
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
DUE TO RECENT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED ALONG-TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
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Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GELENA Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

GELENA storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2019-02-14T12:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-28.2, 85.8	dissipating
2019-02-15T00:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-29.9, 89.0	dissipating
2019-02-15T12:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-32.0, 91.0	dissipated

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