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FIVE-C Current Status

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH at

FIVE-C Land Hazards

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
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FIVE-C Tracker

FIVE-C Satellite Loop

FIVE-C Alternate Tracking Map

Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms.

FIVE-C Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for FIVE-C can be found here:

FIVE-C spaghetti models page »

FIVE-C Watches and Warnings

The Watches and Warnings Map is only availble on NHC tracked storms.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C Public Advisory

000
WTPA35 PHFO 210850
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 20 2015
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 171.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SW OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
  FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.
 
SURF...SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT. DANGEROUS SEA AND SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
 
RAINFALL...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C Forecast Discussion

000
WTPA45 PHFO 210906
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 20 2015
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION /LLCC/ OF FIVE-C APPEARED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS
THE SUN SET...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES AVAILABLE ON THE FNMOC AND NRL WEB SITES SUGGEST THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IS NOW DISPLACED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE ESTIMATED TOPS TO NEAR
53 THOUSAND FEET. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF FIVE-C WERE 25 TO 30 KT FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES. DUE TO
THIS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT
FROM JTWC. THEREFORE...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OR 025 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
SYSTEM ARE A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH FAR TO THE WEST NEAR LONGITUDE
173E...AND A DEEP RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DRAWN TOWARD
THE DEEP TROUGH. MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK HAS
BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND NUDGED TO THE LEFT TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE. AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...
THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED MORE THAN 500 NM TO THE NORTH SHOULD
CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE. AS A RESULT...THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS. FIVE-C WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO UNDERGO AN 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUING TO
SHOW THIS WILL HAPPEN BEYOND 48 HOURS...WITH THE LATEST OPC INPUT
INDICATING THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE 
72 AND 96 HOUR INTENSITY AND 72 HOUR 34 KT WIND RADII FORECASTS 
WERE ALSO COORDINATED WITH OPC.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THESE VULNERABLE LOW LYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 24.4N 171.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 26.0N 171.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 28.3N 172.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 31.0N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 35.0N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 43.4N 175.0E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/0600Z 50.0N 172.5E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

FIVE-C storm path from CPHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 24.4, -171.6
35 knots 26.0, -171.7
35 knots 28.3, -172.1
35 knots 31.0, -173.0
40 knots 35.0, -175.0
40 knots 43.4, 175.0 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
35 knots 50.0, 172.5 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
0 knots , translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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