(cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker)
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Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH at
Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms.
Spaghetti models for FIVE-C can be found here:
FIVE-C spaghetti models page »
The Watches and Warnings Map is only availble on NHC tracked storms.
000 WTPA35 PHFO 210850 TCPCP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015 1100 PM HST SUN SEP 20 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 171.6W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF LISIANSKI ISLAND ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SW OF MARO REEF MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SURF...SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT. DANGEROUS SEA AND SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM HST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
000 WTPA45 PHFO 210906 TCDCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015 1100 PM HST SUN SEP 20 2015 THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION /LLCC/ OF FIVE-C APPEARED TO BE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS THE SUN SET...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AVAILABLE ON THE FNMOC AND NRL WEB SITES SUGGEST THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IS NOW DISPLACED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE ESTIMATED TOPS TO NEAR 53 THOUSAND FEET. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF FIVE-C WERE 25 TO 30 KT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES. DUE TO THIS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC. THEREFORE...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH FAR TO THE WEST NEAR LONGITUDE 173E...AND A DEEP RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DRAWN TOWARD THE DEEP TROUGH. MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND NUDGED TO THE LEFT TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD... THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED MORE THAN 500 NM TO THE NORTH SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE. AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FIVE-C WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS WILL HAPPEN BEYOND 48 HOURS...WITH THE LATEST OPC INPUT INDICATING THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE 72 AND 96 HOUR INTENSITY AND 72 HOUR 34 KT WIND RADII FORECASTS WERE ALSO COORDINATED WITH OPC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THESE VULNERABLE LOW LYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 24.4N 171.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 26.0N 171.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 28.3N 172.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.0N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 35.0N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 43.4N 175.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0600Z 50.0N 172.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
30 knots | 24.4, -171.6 | ||
35 knots | 26.0, -171.7 | ||
35 knots | 28.3, -172.1 | ||
35 knots | 31.0, -173.0 | ||
40 knots | 35.0, -175.0 | ||
40 knots | 43.4, 175.0 | translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP | |
35 knots | 50.0, 172.5 | translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP | |
0 knots | , | translation missing: en.DISSIPATED |
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