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Eketsang Storm Tracker

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Current View of the South Indian Basin

Tropical Outlook

Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is low.

South Indian Active Storms

No active storms


2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
         A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
         B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
      22.7S 34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 78 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE, 
      MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INRAFRED IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED, 
      BUT WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) CURRENTLY SITUATED 
      OVER LAND WITH MINIMAL, FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LLC, AND A BALL 
      OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 171401Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ 
      MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. 92S IS 
      CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG DUAL 
      CHANNEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
      SHEAR (VWS) AND LAND INTERACTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
      AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD CROSSING OVERSEA WHERE 
      IT WILL BE IN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. 
      HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW THAT 92S WILL LIKELY TURN BACK INTO LAND AFTER 
      ONLY A FEW DAYS, CREATING A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL 
      DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY, COOLER 
      AIR TO BE BROUGHT EQUATORWARD INTO 92S, INHIBITING ITS POTENTIAL FOR 
      DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
      20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
      MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
      CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
            (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
      NNNN


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