Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
9 Current Status
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 90 knots / MPH at
9 Land Hazards
9 Tracker
9 Satellite Loop
9 Alternate Tracking Map
9 Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for 9 can be found here:
9 Watches and Warnings
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 Tropical Cyclone Update
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 Public Advisory
ZCZC 576 WTIO30 FMEE 260023 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2024/03/26 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 50.9 E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/26 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85 24H: 2024/03/27 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 36H: 2024/03/27 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/03/28 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 60H: 2024/03/28 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/03/29 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/30 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35 120H: 2024/03/31 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH MARKED AND VERY COLD, HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NEAR THE CENTER AND HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE REMAINED ANALYZED AS A 30KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA, THIS ANALYSIS AND THE ONE ON THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. UPPER DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. INITIALLY, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY MOSTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE TRADE WIND SURGE. THEN IT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THIS TUESDAY, IN RESPONSE TO WEAK, CONTRADICTORY MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE OVER AND STEER THE TRAJECTORY SOUTH TO SOUTH-WESTWARD, BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COAST. A LANDFALL IS NOT RULED OUT. UNCERTAINTY IS PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO ERRORS IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM, IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARDS. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, THE SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE FEATURING SEVERAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE OCEAN POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY ALSO SIGNIFICANT, WITH DEEP, WARM WATERS. INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY RAPID INTENSIFICATION THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, IS THEREFORE LIKELY. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS THUS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. UNDERLYING WATERS COOLING THROUGH UPWELLING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, GIVEN THE SPEED AT WHICH THE STORM IS MOVING, WHICH COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED PARTICULARLY LIKELY AT PRESENT, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDS, OR IN THE EVENT OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD HAVE A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, WITH TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: EITHER A RAPID MOTION IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY AS SHOWN BY GFS, OR A SLOWER MOTION AND MORE PENETRATING SHEAR, WILL LEAD TO DRY AIR INTRUSION AND RAPID WEAKENING, AS SHOWN BY IFS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CURRENTLY BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MADAGASCAR : - THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE (MOVING CLOSE BY AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY) BUT A DIRECT IMPACT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. - HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OVER EASTERN ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PERIOD OF 200 TO 300 MM AT LEAST ARE LIKELY, AND LOCALLY MORE. - GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE COASTLINE FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. STORM FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. - WAVES FROM 4 TO 6 METRES FROM TONIGHT UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY ON THE EASTER COAST OF ANTISIRANANA PROVINCE, PEAKING AT 6 TO 9 METERS WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT.= NNNN
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
9 storm path from meteo france
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | -12.8, 50.9 | ||
| 40 knots | -13.0, 50.7 | translation missing: en.MODERATE | |
| 60 knots | -13.5, 50.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 75 knots | -13.8, 50.6 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 85 knots | -14.4, 50.6 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 90 knots | -15.0, 51.0 | translation missing: en.INTENSE | |
| 90 knots | -15.5, 51.7 | translation missing: en.INTENSE | |
| 70 knots | -16.8, 54.3 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 55 knots | -18.9, 56.4 | translation missing: en.SEVERE |
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