Cyclocane

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

08U Current Status

Current Wind Speed 35 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / MPH at

08U Land Hazards

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
Welcome to the Meteorological Services
La Réunion

08U Tracker

08U Satellite Loop

08U Alternate Tracking Map

08U Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for 08U can be found here:

08U spaghetti models page »

08U Watches and Warnings

Tropical Low 08U Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Low 08U Public Advisory

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 21/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 119.8E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  22/0000: 18.1S 119.9E:     055 [105]:  035  [065]:  992
+12:  22/0600: 18.7S 120.0E:     070 [125]:  035  [065]:  990
+18:  22/1200: 19.2S 120.3E:     075 [140]:  040  [075]:  987
+24:  22/1800: 19.7S 120.8E:     085 [155]:  045  [085]:  984
+36:  23/0600: 20.9S 122.1E:     095 [180]:  035  [065]:  987
+48:  23/1800: 22.3S 123.7E:     115 [210]:  030  [055]:  993
+60:  24/0600: 23.6S 125.3E:     130 [235]:  030  [055]:  995
+72:  24/1800: 24.9S 127.3E:     140 [265]:  030  [055]:  996
+96:  25/1800: 26.5S 132.7E:     175 [330]:  025  [045]:  999
+120: 26/1800: 28.1S 136.9E:     200 [370]:  025  [045]:  998
REMARKS:
The system has been difficult to locate for the past 6 hours. IR imagery shows
convection is still forming near the centre but there appears to be little real
curvature to the convection with a sharp edge along the convective blow up
indicating the system is still suffering under northerly shear.

Dvorak analysis leans heavily on MET/PAT with FT remaining at 2.0.  FInal
intensity estimate is 35 knots with gales restricted to southern quadrants.

The system is in a moist environment and over very warm SSTs. Upper divergence
is strong to the south but weak to non existant equatorward. Development has
thus far been constrained by wind shear. Shear may weaken a little during Friday
as the system moves around the western flank of an upper anticyclone before
experiencing increasing northwesterly winds aloft as an upper trough approaches.
There is decresing time for this system to develop before making landfall and
the forecast now peaks intensity at 45 knots. 

Deterministic [hi-res] model runs are in close agreement regarding track, which
is dominated by the anticyclone to the east and the approaching  mid-latitude
upper trough. There is greater divergence in track amongst ensemble members.

Models indicate the system remains coherent for some time and can be tracked
well into central parts of Australia.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0130 UTC.

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Low 08U Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

08U storm path from BOM - WESTERN

Time Speed Location Status
35 knots -17.5, 119.8
35 knots -18.1, 119.9
35 knots -18.7, 120.0
40 knots -19.2, 120.3
45 knots -19.7, 120.8
35 knots -20.9, 122.1
30 knots -22.3, 123.7
30 knots -23.6, 125.3
30 knots -24.9, 127.3
25 knots -26.5, 132.7
25 knots -28.1, 136.9


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